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Subdued housing market suggests residential construction confidence is overblown

Subdued housing market suggests residential construction confidence is overblown
After hovering at close to zero throughout the first half of last year, expectations for residential construction activity from ANZ’s Business Outlook strengthened from July 2024 – as did many other indicators in the survey of business sentiment.
Analysis
Cost-of-living pressures still felt by some

Analysis
Cost-of-living pressures still felt by some
Despite a decline in the headline price inflation rate, a continued high level of withdrawals from KiwiSaver for financial hardship reasons suggests cost-of-living pressures are still being felt by some households.
Chart of the month
Milk price range signals careful balance

Chart of the month
Milk price range signals careful balance
Despite clear trade concerns globally, New Zealand’s primary sector is in a strong position, and high food commodity prices reinforce this strength. But Fonterra’s opening farmgate milk price forecast for the 2025/26 season provides a major signal of caution, highlighting the heightened volatility in global economic conditions, dairy supply dynamics, and trade tensions.
Analysis
We’ve passed Peak Tractor

Analysis
We’ve passed Peak Tractor
Tractors are often seen as a key piece of farm equipment, and long have been thought of as a good economic indicator of farm spending and investment. Despite the continued focus on tractors in New Zealand, and how they can act as a bellwether for the primary sector, in reality, things are shifting. Infometrics analysis shows that New Zealand passed peak tractor back in 2022, and they are likely become a less important indicator of primary sector activity as the sector shifts to different and more varied technology.
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Analysis
Examining homelessness trends across New Zealand

Analysis
Examining homelessness trends across New Zealand
Homelessness is a clear challenge for some people in New Zealand. Although homelessness numbers are small, on a relative basis, housing outcomes for nearly 112,000 people are still far too precarious to be ignored. Homelessness comes in different forms, and with different patterns of need across New Zealand.
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A higher bar for pay equity

A higher bar for pay equity
On 6 May 2025, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden announced the Government was amending the Equal Pay Act, including discontinuing current pay equity claims and raising the bar for future claims to be successful. Here we look at the number of workers whose pay equity claims were discontinued and the types of occupations affected.
Media release
Costs from grocery suppliers to supermarkets increase 2.0%pa in May

Media release
Costs from grocery suppliers to supermarkets increase 2.0%pa in May
The pace of supplier cost increases to Foodstuffs supermarkets remained steady in May, with the Infometrics-Foodstuffs New Zealand Grocery Supplier Cost Index (GSCI) showing an average 2.0% increase in what suppliers charged in May 2025, compared to a year earlier.
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RBNZ tariff scenarios provide clarity on effects of the trade war

RBNZ tariff scenarios provide clarity on effects of the trade war
Late last month the Reserve Bank released its latest Monetary Policy Statement, which included forecast scenarios based on different ways the ongoing trade war could evolve and effect the New Zealand economy.
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Migration trends affect both demand and supply for construction

Migration trends affect both demand and supply for construction
Net migration is one of the big uncertainties currently when trying to forecast future residential construction activity levels.
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Analysis
Turning the tide on maths proficiency

Analysis
Turning the tide on maths proficiency
On 12 May, the Government announced that they would invest almost $100m over four years to improve student achievement in maths. Do school students need this extra maths teaching support, and will the changes make any difference?